Oh, Really? Tremendous?

The Claim

At a speech in Jacksonville, Florida on November 3rd, 2016, Donald Trump said “I think I have tremendous support from women.” According to politifact.com, Trump has made an incorrect claim in saying this. Throughout his campaign, we have seen Trump struggle to gain the support of women, so it is unlikely that he has done so in the last week. In order to determine the truth in his statement, we can look at the polls and see how the numbers add up. While numbers have been changing in the past week, the polls can help us determine whether or not women’s support for Trump is indeed tremendous.

trump-tremendous The Polls Have It

As has been discussed in class numerous times, polls are rarely 100% accurate due to poor turnout, asking a biased population, and numerous other errors, but they are the best way to predict what the election turnout might be. A recent CBS Poll shows Clinton winning 50% of the female vote compared to Trump’s 36%, and an ABC News poll reports Clinton’s 52% to Trump’s 41%. Among a number of polls, the smallest gap between the two candidates in terms of female support is 8 points, showing that Trump’s claim seems to be false.

History of Women Supporting the Republican Party

According to political scientist Christina Wolbrecht, “The exact figure depends on your data source, but the reliable sources all put the percent of women voting for GOP nominees at the low to upper 40s since 2000.” Trump’s average is at 39 right now, putting him behind George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney’s support from women in their respective elections. While he does carry Republican women with 72% support, is pales in comparison to the 92% who voted for Romney in 2012. Although anything can change on election day, it’s looking like women’s support for Trump will be anything but “tremendous.”

A Man with a Feminine Style

Feminine Style

What does it mean to speak in a feminine style? Research says Donald Trump could give us an idea. According to a post from Politico, Trump’s linguistic style has been much more feminine than that of his opponents. Researchers classify feminine style as speech with more tentative and emotion-laden words, more use of the word “I,”and words associated with a lower grade-level- among other characteristics. As seen in the graphic below, Trump ranks significantly higher in feminine language than 35 other political candidates. Speakers who use a feminine style are able to reach their audience through an emotional appeal, making the speaker seem more likable and trustworthy. Likely, this is why Trump is able to hold as many supporters as he has, giving them the backing to stand strong against fact-checkers.

Why Does it Matter?

Emotions are the basis for citizens’ votes, female and male. According to Drew Westen, “The political brain is an emotional brain. It is not a dispassionate calculating machine, objectively searching for the right facts, figures and policies to make a reasoned decision.” With the emotion in Trump’s feminine style, he is able to pull voters in, putting us at the current polls showing Clinton only one point above Trump at 46-45. The current debate is Trump’s “women problem” vs. Clinton’s emails, and voters are having to make decisions based not on facts, but what their hearts feel is less-destructive. For women, the decision is most often that the emails are less-destructive. A part

A Look at the Next 9 Days

As October surprises come to a close, emotions are running rampant. Both candidates are fighting for numbers in their chance for the Presidency, and the female vote is a deciding factor in who will win the election. As early voters go to the polls, women are voting for Hillary more than they are for Trump. This is likely because they feel a strong connection to their “tribe,” making is seem completely possible and often ideal that a woman secure the Presidency. With Trump’s continued attacks against women, his feminine style, though it gains a number of white male votes, isn’t yet gaining a majority of the feminine vote.

When an Icon Disapproves

Michelle Obama and the Female Vote

Over the past 8 years, Michelle Obama has proven to be a driving force among the female population of the United States. As First Lady of the President of the United States, she has been able to communicate the ideal image of women across the country and make an impact on how young girls see their futures. With her stark disapproval of Trump’s 2005 tapes, she represents the feelings of women all across the country. Women identify with her and therefore support the identity she creates for Trump in segments of her campaign speech for Secretary Hillary Clinton. She says desperately that she “can’t stop thinking about this,” allowing the feelings of other women to be validated. The purpose of her speech, however, is to speak for Hillary Clinton’s campaign…not just to disapprove of Donald Trump’s.

No Vote at all is a Vote for Him

In Michelle Obama’s speech, she constructs her argument in a way that not only tells voters-both female and male- that they shouldn’t vote for Trump, but also that they should vote for Hillary Clinton: “no vote at all is a vote for him.” This two-sided technique allows her to achieve two goals with one speech. An article found on LexisNexis mentions her speech and quotes her with saying “I can’t believe I’m saying that a candidate for president of the United States bragged about sexually assaulting women.”

So What does this mean for Trump? It means that he is not only just losing female votes…he’s losing them to her. And Hillary Clinton is capitalizing on it with pages like this one, stating that “Michelle Obama just said what every woman in America is thinking right now.” Because of Donald Trump’s failure to effectively apologize and repair the situation, Hillary Clinton has a wide open window to make herself look better- through her own words and those of surrogates like Michelle Obama. And those actions are allowing the declining number of female votes for Donald Trump to continue falling.

When the Gender Gap is More Than a Gap

Status of the Female Vote
At this point in the election, polls show that out of 100 women, 61 are voting for Clinton and 28 for Trump, as shown in this video. Statisticians have gone so far as to make bold statements like “If Trump loses the election, it will be because women voted against him.” At the beginning of this election, we anticipated a gender gap, but nowhere near this size. Fivethirtyeight.com shows a compilation of the gender split from all national polls so far in October, only reinforcing what the media is presenting…and the numbers aren’t looking good for Trump.

Where’s Your Audience?

It’s no secret that Trump needs to target women in order to boost his chances of winning this election. But, due to the message he is sending, it seems as though he’s misunderstanding his audience. In his apology over the 2005 mic-tape release, he says things like “if anyone was offended” and called the whole scenario a “distraction”, discounting the severity of his comments. Rather than addressing that women need a sincere apology or explanation, he has turned to either dismissing his actions or focusing his attention on the actions of Bill and Hillary Clinton. If he is truly interested in gaining the female vote, the way he handled the situation, including his response to the numerous women who have come out and spoken against him, would reflect those intentions. His responses would have been more intentional, emotional, and specifically target toward women.

What Does this Mean?

For Trumps final month of the election, this means a few things. First, sites such as this one must exist to help support his effort. In past elections with smaller gender gaps, a site specifically devoted to gaining more female votes would not have been necessary. Second, Trump will have to stop blaming the issue on a media bias. He must realize that he’s not giving his audience what they want and change his strategy. Without the female vote, it’s highly unlikely that Trump will win the election.

Kristen LaFevers

Is Apologizing Enough?

Comments About Women

After Donald Trump’s comments in footage from 2005 were released this week, women all over the country have seemingly reached their limit on what they can withstand from Mr. Trump in terms of his treatment of women. He claimed that his comments like: “You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful- I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet,” “And when you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything,” and “all I can see is the legs.” In response to the release of the footage, Trump claims that it was just “locker room banter,” making some women feel even more disgusted.

Beyond the Female Vote

In response the release of Trump’s 2005 comments, CNN reports that “Even Terry Gainer, a former US Senate sergeant at arms who rarely makes political comments, emailed CNN to say, ‘It is not just woman who should shun Trump. Any gentleman, every husband, each father of a daughter, bother of a sister and sons must be outraged.’ Now, instead of it being obvious just women to not vote for Trump, even Republicans are claiming that everyone, regardless of gender, should be ashamed to support Trump.

Apology Accepted?

For the first time in his campaign, Trump apologized for the things he said, saying “anyone who knows me knows these words don’t reflect who I am.” Responding in one of the ways presidential candidates might in a situation where they have made bad personal choices, he claims that his statements weren’t his true self and therefore should be excused. However, this “apology” isn’t what female voters- or anyone, frankly- are hoping for. Because of his failure to confront an emotional issue with an emotional, heartfelt apology, there are numerous Republican leaders (listed in this article) who have either said they will not vote for or removed endorsements for Trump- some have even asked that he step down as a presidential candidate. After the results of tonight’s debate, we will find out if America has truly accepted Trump’s “apology” or merely takes it as a desperate attempt to stay in the race.

Despite how the country continues to deal with Trump’s comments and response to them over the next week, the incident has without a doubt impacted his support from women, but likely many other voters’ support, as well.

Should it be Mr. Piggy?

Donald Trump and Miss Universe

In Monday’s Presidential debate, Donald Trump was again called out for his treatment of former Miss Universe, Alicia Machado. He reportedly called her sexist names like “Miss Piggy,” “Miss Housekeeping,” and “Miss Eating Machine.” See this video to watch Alicia Machado’s perspective on his actions. Hillary Clinton brought up the controversial issue, playing on the fact that the college-educated female vote is a group on which Trump should be focused during this election.

The Female Vote in 2016

According to Brookings, “white college-educated women could be Trump’s Achilles heel.” He depends on them so much that “even a supersized turnout of working-class white men would not be nearly enough for Trump to win the election.” We have discussed in class lecture that throughout history, there has always been a targeted group of voters on which candidates rely. For 2016, this is both African Americans and college-educated women. After his performance in this week’s debate, it’s not looking like Trump is going to gain the support he needs from college-educated women. The media backlash of more women speaking on how Trump has treated them surely doesn’t help his case. Alicia Machado has even reported that she has not be paid by the Clinton Administration to speak against Trump, which adds even more validity to her experience.

Mr. Piggy

As evidence from his actions toward women who participate in pageants like Alicia Machado and his treatment of other women on numerous occasions, it’s obvious that Donald Trump isn’t trying to gain women as a part of his voter base. Rather than his name for Mrs. Machado, it’s looking like we should refer to him as Mr. Piggy. For a presidential candidate who needs the support of college-educated women to win the election, Mr. Trump has failed to value the contributions of women in this country, including his experienced opponent Secretary Hillary Clinton. After repeatedly interrupting her throughout the entire debate, but especially while she discussed the issue here, Trump confirmed women’s beliefs that he does not value them as individuals worthy of respect and dignity.

-Kristen LaFevers