Has Trump really lost the female vote?

Throughout this election the media has used all of Trump’s demeaning rhetoric to shape his narrative. However, over the past few days Trump has engaged in silence to prevent further upset with potential female voters.

Silence is Goldensponsoredsilence-icon-300x300

Since his “nasty women” comment, Trump has made a large effort to transform his rhetoric from denial to what he considers to be the real issues. By the end of October Trump adopted the strategy to ignore the allegations and focus on the issues he knows best such as jobs and the economy. Initially I felt that this was a poor strategy and felt that a large majority of America wouldn’t see this as a campaign strategy, but rather a “dismissive attitude towards the concerns of women” (Adamczyk). I personally feel  that this is just a diversion tactic to take the focus off of Trump and his demeaning rhetoric used towards women. However, the longer I thought, I began to realize that this was a smart strategy for Trump because he doesn’t do well when he goes off script.

Is there proof?

According to an article published by The Daily Caller News Foundation on November 7th, Trump has made a rather large gain in the polls with female voters (Stucky). In fact the author claims that Trump now has a two point lead over Clinton which is primarily due to his “increasing support from women voters.” According to Investor’s Business Daily IBD tracking poll shpoll5-gender-110116-640x360ows that Trump’s crude language and actions involving women appear to not have hurt his standing against Clinton. The poll shows that 39% of women have announced their support for Trump, which is the same percentage of su
pport Mitt Romney received in 2012 from women voters.

However, there are still many polls that predict that Trump has in fact lost the educated women vote (Purcell). Nonetheless, the real question of whether or not Trump has greatly lost the female vote will ultimately be seen in the election results.

Now we wait…

At this point it can swing either way. However, I personally believe that the media have used all of Trump’s demeaning comments to shape his narrative. Rhetoric is called into being by the situation and Trumps previous actions have ultimately allowed for this negative narrative to be created. The public often chooses from a small set of stories and this is perfectly seen by how America simply sees Trump as a womanizer. The media and the voters have chosen to remember all the demeaning rhetoric Trump has engaged in. Over the course of this election the media has rightfully persuaded the American women that Trump is a man unworthy of presidency, which I believe will be seen in the election results

He Brings an Enthusiasm Factor

Don’t Listen to the Polls apparently

So we are within one day what some would call “the biggest election of our time” and while many women continue to voice their complaints about Trump, he has been led to think the opposite as he claims that he has “tremendous” support from women and has his family and campaign people insisting that the polls are wrong and that women are voting for Trump. Lara Trump, who is the wife of the candidate’s son Eric, claimed that the support she has seen on the ground coming from women should not be overlooked. “Women are very enthusiastic about voting for Donald. I know the polls suggest otherwise, but I’ll tell you. I’m on the ground. I see it everyday.” While many, including the media, in my opinion will probably write these comments off, I think holds some substantial depth to this particular category. We’ve been hearing over and over and over again about how much women can’t get passed Trump’s comments or hear other politicians such as Elizabeth Warren bash the candidate at Clinton rally’s.

But why aren’t we hearing about the actual support coming from women?

I’d argue that it’s because it doesn’t make the kind of “juicy talk” the media is looking for the day or two before the election. It’s honestly probably the opposite from what they really want to hear. The primary “talk” of the Trump election has been surrounded by his comments made about women, which then brought about a slew of accusers claiming to have been sexually assaulted or verbally mistreated by Trump over the years.

But we get no coverage of the actual women supporters.


It will continue this way

I’m going to continue to argue that the silent majority will continue to be in favor in Trump and that includes women. I firmly believe that the remaining advertisement that is displayed will only showcase “anti-Trump” rhetoric coming from Hilary’s side because it’s the communicative message she’s been deploying ever since those tapes came out that gets people’s emotions all bent out of shape. It’s the one message that she can use to really sink him in, according to her experts.

So why are we still talking about it?

It’s like we’ve discussed in class.  Hillary’s primary audience she’s speaking to with this rhetoric and message is women. It’s been a sought after and bolstered up topic for the past 18 months and will more than likely continue on once we have elected a new President.

But again, what we don’t ever hear about are the women that ARE going to and have voted for Trump because that would then go completely against the message that everyone has been fixated to believe is on the top of the totem poll of campaign discussion.




A Different Perspective

Just in time for the election, I decided to take a different stance this week and talk about women who are voting for Trump, instead of more focus on the topic of why Trump has lost female votes. It seems that there’s a mix of Republican women who have voted for Trump without excitement, some who have taken a different road and voted against Trump, and then there’s some hardcore Republicans who are with him through and through. Although there are two sides to every story, I would like to argue that Hillary Clinton’s democratic views on certain topics such as abortion, respect, and how some think she negatively represents women have caused women voters to turn against her and see Trump’s qualities, such as him being a savvy businessman, speaking his mind, and getting the job done.


Trump at a rally showing off the Women for Trump logo.

The New York Magazine published an interesting article about how ten specific republican women’s votes have formulated over the course of the election process. This includes ideas such as, “I wouldn’t vote for Hillary. It’s especially the issue of abortion. I am a total pro-life person.” And, “He’s a businessman, and I think that’s what this country needs: someone to figure out what we’re going to do with our economy” And lastly, “I don’t understand how she can say she respects women when she doesn’t respect herself.” Not only does this article encompass opposing opinions from what we’ve heard a lot about women and Trump, but it holds truth to the reason why women are choosing Trump. As we touched on in class, people have a warrant to vote for Trump and try or die is his only alternative. His aggressiveness has seemed to win over women with valid reason, and although this still means that many women have reason to vote against him, it’s refreshing to hear a different perspective of the warrant that Republican women have about him. I definitely see how these women have formulated their opinions based on Trump’s ideas on many issues and his tactics such as being straight to the point, and why they have chosen to not side with Hillary’s extra baggage.

All in all, Tuesday, November 8 (tomorrow, yikes) will go down in history as a very interesting election for many reasons. The big question is if Trump will get enough of the women’s votes like these, although it seems right now that his negative qualities may be shining more than his positive ones.

Oh, Really? Tremendous?

The Claim

At a speech in Jacksonville, Florida on November 3rd, 2016, Donald Trump said “I think I have tremendous support from women.” According to politifact.com, Trump has made an incorrect claim in saying this. Throughout his campaign, we have seen Trump struggle to gain the support of women, so it is unlikely that he has done so in the last week. In order to determine the truth in his statement, we can look at the polls and see how the numbers add up. While numbers have been changing in the past week, the polls can help us determine whether or not women’s support for Trump is indeed tremendous.

trump-tremendousThe Polls Have It

As has been discussed in class numerous times, polls are rarely 100% accurate due to poor turnout, asking a biased population, and numerous other errors, but they are the best way to predict what the election turnout might be. A recent CBS Poll shows Clinton winning 50% of the female vote compared to Trump’s 36%, and an ABC News poll reports Clinton’s 52% to Trump’s 41%. Among a number of polls, the smallest gap between the two candidates in terms of female support is 8 points, showing that Trump’s claim seems to be false.

History of Women Supporting the Republican Party

According to political scientist Christina Wolbrecht, “The exact figure depends on your data source, but the reliable sources all put the percent of women voting for GOP nominees at the low to upper 40s since 2000.” Trump’s average is at 39 right now, putting him behind George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney’s support from women in their respective elections. While he does carry Republican women with 72% support, is pales in comparison to the 92% who voted for Romney in 2012. Although anything can change on election day, it’s looking like women’s support for Trump will be anything but “tremendous.”

Trump’s switch to Pro-Life

Up until 2011, Donald Trump was on one side of an issue so salient for the Republican party that there is no way that he ever would have been able to secure the nomination, he was pro-choice. Going back all the way to 1991, Trump was “pro-choice in every aspect” refusing to ban partial birth abortions. But when he first decided to change his position before running in the Republican primary, he had to reassure people that he wasn’t just another flip flopping politician. And for all of Donald’s failings this seems to be one area he has been particularly adept at. His first problem was how he hoped to explain his prior 20 years of pro-choice rhetoric. His tactic was actually spot on for what it needed to be. He told the story of a couple he knew deciding or not whether to keep a baby they would soon have. He said they decided to keep the baby and as the father would say later “[his daughter] is the greatest thing that’s ever happened to him”. Not only did he personalize his message, he played on one of the strongest bonds most people have, that of a parent and child. Whether or not that story is true or just something he crafted doesn’t really matter because he’s solidly cemented himself as a staunch pro-life candidate. Even during the last debate, he attacked Hillary for her position on abortion. He used harsh and violent rhetoric that stuck in people’s minds much more that Hillary’s attempt at a response.

Of all the policy that Trump has gone back and forth on and of all the numerous scandals plaguing his campaign, his stance on abortion has managed to stay firmly rooted. This is because, while it may be what he believes, this may be his best in to reaching women voters that as dissatisfied with Hillary but think Trump is too much of a wild card. By consistently staying on message on an issue that women care deeply about, Trump is trying to gain back a percentage of the people Hillary thinks are squarely in her camp. Especially by softening his position on planned parenthood, he has emerged as a candidate that has cares about women’s issues which he hopes is enough to counter some of the comments he’s made in public.

A Closer Focus on My Home State: Texas

Personally being from Austin, Texas, a blue city within a red state, it’s interesting to me to see how this elections votes have progressed within the state of Texas. Although it looks like Texas will still turn out to be a red state, there was a lot of talk about how it’s more blue than it has ever been. In particular, Texas women’s votes for Hillary vs. their votes for Trump could have affected this competitiveness, especially in state like Texas that has a lot of electoral votes. I would like to argue that Donald Trump has deterred Texas women voters, specifically suburban ones, so much that he has caused less of a marginal republican lead than normal in Texas.

NPR states, “Trump will carry Texas, but probably by a lot less than the 16-point margin Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney beat President Obama by in 2012.” It goes on to tell us about how certain Texas Republican women citizens are carrying worry about the typical, and understandable, concerns with Trump: how he talks about women, that he’s not a politician, etc. Just as Dr. Adams told us during lecture, Texas is a big place to focus on during the election night, which is something that was probably not an issue for Romney four years ago. On a bigger scale, Dr. Adams gave several reasons as to why the south (including Texas) is becoming more purple in general, one being immigrants – something that you see a lot of in Texas (and many that have probably chosen to vote for Hillary due to Trump “[going] out of his way to alienate Hispanic voters.”


Texas presidential election votes in 2012. How will this map change in 2016?

It all comes full circle when you look at how the effects of women (and even immigrants in Texas, which are partially women) in Texas have changed the makeup of Texas’ vote statistics. I believe Trump has definitely stirred a change in the Texas women’s votes; many may be choosing to vote for Hillary because of Trump’s questionable actions. When it’s all said and done, it will be interesting to see how different Texas’ voter gender demographics differ from the past, and it’s even more interesting to me that Texas is even a state to focus on during election night in general.

The Surprises Continue

Donald Trumps support among the female population has taken a large hit with all the recent October surprises. However, the decline in his support among women is simply a result from his past rhetoric. The most recent example of this is seen in an article published by The Huffington Post. Trump’s votes among women will continue to decline with the release of another video clip.

The Video

The clip uploaded to this article is from 2007 and shows Donald Trump once again addressing women in an inappropriate manner. In the clip Trump is seen in front of a large audience where he calls all the women “girls.” Not only does this highlight the lack of respect he has for women, but he takes it a step farther by admitting that he refuses to call them women: “The girls– we’re supposed to call them women, but they’re girls to me —  the girls…” (Arthur Delaney). The unprofessional language he uses towards women only furthers to contradict with his recent statement, “Nobody has more respect for women than I do” (Bloomberg Politics)

In the video he also makes a comment in regards to all the beautiful women who surrounded him at the workplace. He highlights the lack of control he has as he states, “girls, get off the stage right now. You’ll get me in trouble” (Arthur Delaney) The recent allegations against him in regards to sexual assault is supported by the rhetoric he uses in this video.


Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump responds to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's closing remarks during the first Republican presidential debate at the Quicken Loans Arena Thursday, Aug. 6, 2015, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

On its own this clip holds no real significance, however Trump has created a rhetorical situation in which this has a negative impact on his own campaign. Since the release of the “locker room talk” video, Trump has continued to claim he has great respect for women. However, the immature and insensitive rhetoric used in this video only continues to prove that he has zero respect for females

Throughout the past few weeks it has become increasingly evident that the female “tribe” is becoming stronger than ever.  In the Political Campaign Communication textbook it stated that people don’t experience things through actions, but rather words. Not every woman in American has made an allegation of sexual assault, nonetheless countless women have supported the victims by withdrawing their vote for Trump. The continual release of videos such as this only increases the unity and opposition of women against Trump.

An Emotion Driven Topic

He’s giving everyone “the feels”

It’s crazy to think that we are only 8 days away from finding out who will become our next President for the next four years. This entire election, for Trump at least, has been sandblasted by the media, especially in terms of how much controversy has surrounded him with women and the things that he has said in the past. I am no political analyst by any means, but my argument at this point in the ball game is that it’s time to move on. It’s time to move on past having to watch Elizabeth Warren comment on his “nasty woman” quote from the last debate. It’s time to move on past having to see every social media outlet post their two cents about what he said in 2005 and what he said at Gettysburg recently in relation to women coming out saying they had once been sexually assaulted by Trump at one point in their life.

Hear me out though 

I’m in no way saying that this “women talk” is irrelevant and shouldn’t be brought up in conversation. I’m also in no way saying that his behavior should be condoned or excused. The things he has said and potentially done towards women is indeed disgusting and unacceptable. But like we read in class from the Political Brain politics are so driven by emotions and feelings. I’d be presenting the obvious by saying that this entire election, especially the talk on women, which has been so emotionally driven by the media. But what frustrates me the most is that this seems to be the only topic we keep hearing about. As it’s presented in the Political Brain, so many things within politics, especially elections are driven solely by emotion without us even realizing it. All of the things I’ve seen posted by my friends on Facebook or Twitter are emotionally driven and I wish we, including myself, could realize that more.

Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump (C) and campaign CEO Steve Bannon (R) listen to National Park Service Interpretive Park Ranger Caitlin Kostic (2nd R) on a brief visit to Gettysburg National Military Park in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 22, 2016. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst - RTX2Q0OQ

So why move on?

When I say “move on” I don’t necessarily say that we need to ignore the woman problem with Trump. I say it more as, let’s just let the women be the deciding factor of who they vote for. Sure, as we’ve discussed in class, this topic is a money maker for journalists and other media outlets, but I’d so prefer us to stop beating the dead horse and solely leave this conversation up to the women because they will be the ultimate deciding factor. Sure, will Hilary continue to grill Trump on this topic until next Tuesday? Absolutely. And I would argue that she has to because she knows that this is one of the “October Surprise” topics that she is trying to use to keep the media talking about that rather than her recently surfaced email problem.

So ladies and gentlemen, let’s let the ladies decide who they are and aren’t going to vote for. It’s really not worth letting our emotions get all driven up over a topic that has been beaten over and over again.


A Man with a Feminine Style

Feminine Style

What does it mean to speak in a feminine style? Research says Donald Trump could give us an idea. According to a post from Politico, Trump’s linguistic style has been much more feminine than that of his opponents. Researchers classify feminine style as speech with more tentative and emotion-laden words, more use of the word “I,”and words associated with a lower grade-level- among other characteristics. As seen in the graphic below, Trump ranks significantly higher in feminine language than 35 other political candidates. Speakers who use a feminine style are able to reach their audience through an emotional appeal, making the speaker seem more likable and trustworthy. Likely, this is why Trump is able to hold as many supporters as he has, giving them the backing to stand strong against fact-checkers.trump_feminine_final_1.png

Why Does it Matter?

Emotions are the basis for citizens’ votes, female and male. According to Drew Westen, “The political brain is an emotional brain. It is not a dispassionate calculating machine, objectively searching for the right facts, figures and policies to make a reasoned decision.” With the emotion in Trump’s feminine style, he is able to pull voters in, putting us at the current polls showing Clinton only one point above Trump at 46-45. The current debate is Trump’s “women problem” vs. Clinton’s emails, and voters are having to make decisions based not on facts, but what their hearts feel is less-destructive. For women, the decision is most often that the emails are less-destructive. A part

A Look at the Next 9 Days

As October surprises come to a close, emotions are running rampant. Both candidates are fighting for numbers in their chance for the Presidency, and the female vote is a deciding factor in who will win the election. As early voters go to the polls, women are voting for Hillary more than they are for Trump. This is likely because they feel a strong connection to their “tribe,” making is seem completely possible and often ideal that a woman secure the Presidency. With Trump’s continued attacks against women, his feminine style, though it gains a number of white male votes, isn’t yet gaining a majority of the feminine vote.

How Donald Trump could win back some women

For the most part, women have left Donald Trump’s campaign like rats fleeing a sinking ship that’s also on fire. Trump it seems has done everything he can to alienate women but yet he still has a percent who continue to support him. By most estimates, Clinton is dominating Trump by upwards of 15 points nationwide with women (http://presidentialgenderwatch.org/polls/womens-vote-watch/presidential-polling-data/). Clinton’s female supporters are just as loyal as Trump’s male ones. But even now, Trump still has a sizable percent of women in his corner (33-45% range) with some still undecided. As always, it is these undecideds that can sway the election. If Trump can pick up the remainder of these women who still have yet to back a candidate, in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Florida (where Trump just pulled ahead in a new poll http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/bloomberg-florida-poll-trump-clinton/index.html), or North Carolina, it is possible for him to stand a fighting chance.

He isn’t going to swing any women from the Hillary camp, especially because of her ability to go after Trump specifically on women’s issues. But if Trump is able to keep that quiet, and focus on other issues that women find appealing, it is possible for him to sway a few minds. His biggest focus in these last 12 days before the election should be on national security, providing reliable jobs, and how he will fix Obamacare. With specifically these three points, he has the opportunity to keep himself relatively safe and at the very least keep the down ballot Republicans for loosing too disastrously.

One last thing Trump needs to quit doing is attacking Bill and Hillary for past misdeeds. At this point, all of America has heard of what Bill did and for Trump to keep bringing up their history keeps his in the news cycle as well. All he needs to do is simply say that he is no longer that person, that he has changed, and that he is sorry for the mistakes he made in the past.