The Claim

At a speech in Jacksonville, Florida on November 3rd, 2016, Donald Trump said “I think I have tremendous support from women.” According to politifact.com, Trump has made an incorrect claim in saying this. Throughout his campaign, we have seen Trump struggle to gain the support of women, so it is unlikely that he has done so in the last week. In order to determine the truth in his statement, we can look at the polls and see how the numbers add up. While numbers have been changing in the past week, the polls can help us determine whether or not women’s support for Trump is indeed tremendous.

The Polls Have It

As has been discussed in class numerous times, polls are rarely 100% accurate due to poor turnout, asking a biased population, and numerous other errors, but they are the best way to predict what the election turnout might be. A recent CBS Poll shows Clinton winning 50% of the female vote compared to Trump’s 36%, and an ABC News poll reports Clinton’s 52% to Trump’s 41%. Among a number of polls, the smallest gap between the two candidates in terms of female support is 8 points, showing that Trump’s claim seems to be false.

History of Women Supporting the Republican Party

According to political scientist Christina Wolbrecht, “The exact figure depends on your data source, but the reliable sources all put the percent of women voting for GOP nominees at the low to upper 40s since 2000.” Trump’s average is at 39 right now, putting him behind George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney’s support from women in their respective elections. While he does carry Republican women with 72% support, is pales in comparison to the 92% who voted for Romney in 2012. Although anything can change on election day, it’s looking like women’s support for Trump will be anything but “tremendous.”