It is finished.

The race is over and somehow Donald Trump came away as the winner. How did we get here? How, when polls had Clinton winning by up to 84%, did Trump pull off “this amazing political feat”? While there are likely numerous avenues we could look at to determine how this happened, one of particular interest is Hillary’s rhetoric surrounding the middle class.

Class Action

While both Trump and Clinton certainly are far removed from the middle class, both attempted to relate to this pivotal class of voters. Class has perhaps been a bigger factor in this election than any election since the time of the New Deal. As discussed in prior posts, Hillary attempted to appeal to the middle class by painting herself as the motherly type who is a champion for families. She tried to reach out to the youth vote by making college free for those in certain brackets. She counted on the minority vote by highlighting Trump’s own racist comments. But these efforts all failed her. Far from just being a revolt by poor whites mad at the current system, Trump’s win relied on the middle-class, the better-educated, and the well-off. Perhaps Trump’s appeal lies in the simple comparison of his slogan to Clinton’s. While Hillary’s entreaties of “I’m with her” or “Stronger Together” are good ideas, they are just that. Ideas. Trump, on the other hand, had a slogan that incited action. “Make America Great Again” calls for a shift. And in winning this election, we see that Trump managed to make that shift happen.

The Leftover People

One author used the phrase “leftover people” to describe those who led Trump to victory. This is a group that Hillary’s rhetoric failed to reach. The working-class voters listened as Donald promised to bring back mining to coal country and institute extreme vetting on refugees. They cheered as he described a 35% tariff on cars imported from Mexican factories. While this was all happening, Clinton focused on climate change and the health of corporations. She spoke of a 500% increase in Syrian refugees and global trade. Clinton’s campaign failed because she failed to create a message that appealed directly to the fears of the middle class. Going forward, we can only hope that Donald Trump puts rhetoric into action and realizes that only through uniting our divided country can we actually make America great again. As Hillary Clinton said in her concession speech this morning, “if we stand together and work together with respect for our differences, strength in our convictions, and love for this nation, our best days are still ahead of us.”

 

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The Florida Battleground

With less than a week before the election takes place, both camps are doubling down on their efforts in important battleground states. Florida in particular is vital for Trump to win. Without Florida’s 29 electoral votes, Trump would have to win Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. Strategists on both sides of the aisle agree that Clinton winning Florida means a national win for her. With Florida playing such a significant role, it’s interesting to note the differing communication strategies Trump and Clinton are utilizing there.

The Hassling Hustle

Since early voting began on October 25, Clinton and her surrogates have been heavily present in Florida, with Hillary visiting 3 different cities in just one week. Donald, on the other hand, has made only two visits since October 25. While Trump has been using locations that garner massive crowds, Clinton has been appealing to the coveted middle class voter set by visiting smaller locations, always a short stroll from an early voting site. This tactic proved extremely successful for Obama in both 2008 and 2012. Clinton’s people are spending more time than ever communicating with Democrats who have voted only sporadically in the past. One staffer even joked, “we’re definitely hassling you.” The Clinton camp realizes that now is not the time for large rallies that energize a solid base. Now is the time to go into towns and talk to independents to energize new voters.

Polling Results

So is this strategy working? While we might have to wait until next Tuesday to find out, a recent poll has Hillary winning Florida by 2.6 percentage points. Another poll states that Hillary is already winning 28% of registered Republicans in Florida. These polls reinforce the fact that the middle class in Florida wants to be spoken to. Not just spoken about in large rallies. By meeting in more intimate locations that are located within individual communities, Clinton is communicating directly to voters about the middle class themes that have already dominated her campaign. If her camp maintains this drive, they can motivate voters to go to the polls and vote for Hillary. As Clinton herself said, “If we can keep this up, there is no doubt. If we vote, we win.”

 

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Trump’s Unacceptance Speech

In the last and final debate, Donald Trump casted significant doubt on whether he would accept the results of the November election and concede to Hillary Clinton should she win. His statements concerning his concession have garnered many negative reactions, but Hillary Clinton has not passed up this amazing chance to utilize his comments to garner favor with potential middle class voters. In the debate, she immediately responded to his comments, calling them “horrifying” and stating, “let’s be clear about what he is saying and what that means: he is denigrating, he is talking down our democracy.” Until this point, Trump has seemed to paint himself as the patriotic choice with his “Make America Great Again” slogan and his appeals to the every man. But this recent outburst causes problems. Hillary can now come in with the claim that Trump is questioning our very democracy. By altering the rhetoric, she can shape the story to help her appeal to the patriotic middle class. In Pennsylvania rallies this past week, she did just that.

Pennsylvania Rallies

In a speech to Pittsburgh supporters, Clinton made it clear that she did not find humor in Trump’s comments:  “We know in our country the difference between leadership and dictatorship. Peaceful transition of power is one of those things that sets us apart.” This theme only continued at a rally in Philadelphia later that night. This time, Tim Kaine focused on Trump’s anti-democracy statements:  “Trump insulted the pillars of our country’s democracy by saying he wouldn’t accept the results of the election.” If Hillary Clinton continues to emphasize Trump’s concession comments, she can paint herself as the pro-democracy candidate. While this stance is not a normal position we would even think necessary in a presidential race, there is certainly nothing normal about this particular election. By utilizing this stance to create pro-America, anti-Trump rhetoric, Clinton can continue to increase her standing with middle class voters who greatly value patriotism.

A Redefinition

In 1969, Richard Nixon gave a speech in which he coined an important political phrase, that of the “silent majority”. He wasn’t speaking to those that were extremists; he was appealing to the normal, middle-class, white Americans who he hoped would support his Vietnam policy. This simple slogan has reappeared throughout various political campaigns, including the current one. There have even been signs proclaiming “THE SILENT MAJORITY STANDS WITH TRUMP”. But while Trump’s supporters may more closely resemble Nixon’s white, middle-class, GOP supporters, it is Hillary’s rebranding of the “silent majority” that is pivotal to this campaign. Hers is one forged from diversity. Clinton’s majority includes racial minorities, educated women, single mothers, and more than 70% of the LGBTQ population. Although she has fairly consistently led in the polls, we have not seen near as many large, boisterous rallies for Clinton as we have seen for Trump. Rebecca Traister wrote after the Iowa caucus that “this is a paradigm; it’s why Mom is the disciplinarian and Dad is the fun guy, why women remain the brains and organizational workhorses behind social movements while men get to be the gut-ripping orators.” Perhaps, though, the tides are beginning to change on this front. Hillary Clinton may be able to change public perception just as Clinton’s supporters have redefined the “silent majority”.

Speaking to the “Silent Majority”

So how is Hillary Clinton speaking to this new middle-class? To the new “silent majority”? As discussed in prior blog posts, Clinton’s main objective in reaching this redefined crowd seems to be the family route. She has consistently painted herself as the candidate who cares for the family, thus solidifying herself with those single mothers and women who now make up part of the new middle-class. Clinton has also targeted points toward others in this changing majority. In a recent New York Times Q&A, she addressed various issues related to climate change, stating that “we can and will take on climate change, build a clean energy economy, and leave our kids and grandkids a safe and healthy world—because there is no Planet B”. In the same Q&A, Clinton also addressed gun violence and the steps she would take to reduce mass shootings. By targeting her rhetoric at messages that speak to this new middle-class, Hillary Clinton can further expand her base. In the same way that Obama successfully redefined the American Dream in his 2004 DNC speech, Clinton can redefine Nixon’s “silent majority” to include the modern makeup of the American middle-class.

 

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The Basics

At a time when her opponent’s campaign is struggling to hold onto even the staunchest of Republicans, Hillary Clinton is continuing her attempt at expanding her middle class base by announcing new details of her tax policy plan yesterday. This new expansion will double the existing Child Tax Credit to a maximum of $2,000 per child up to age 4. Clinton will also make this credit more accessible to low-income families by changing the income threshold. Her campaign estimates that these expansions will lower federal tax revenue by up to $200 billion over the next 10 years, a move which she hopes to pay for by raising taxes for high earners and Wall Street traders. In contrast to Trump’s plan, which has drawn criticism for being a deduction and not a credit, Clinton’s advisors say that this tax plan is targeted at working-class families and is much more progressive. Clinton even said in her release that “this new tax credit will make their lives a little bit easier” in reference to working class families.

Family Ties

Again, we see Hillary reaching out to the middle class by presenting new plans in the context of family. Just like her rally in Pennsylvania last week, she is honing in on her image as a mother to attempt to expand her working class base and appear more approachable to the everyday American. In the release on her website, they quote her as saying, “hard-working, middle-class families are struggling with rising costs for child care, health care, caregiving and college. This new tax credit will…help restore fairness to our economy.” At a time when Trump is facing isolation because of derogatory comments toward women, Clinton is focusing on the image of a wholesome family. Her campaign is utilizing some of the core principles for persuasive communication by pitching her message, even something as mundane as taxes, at a level of generality that has emotional resonance for people. Working class Americans want to know that their president will advocate for their children. By rolling out plans and speeches that continue to paint her as that kind of president, Clinton can slowly expand her base while Trump struggles to maintain his.

 

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Middle-Class Pennsylvania 

Singing. Dancing. Sign waving. Chants. You might expect to find these at a Trump rally. At last night’s town-hall meeting in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, however, it was all cheers for Hillary. Thus far, Clinton’s campaign has struggled to create enthusiasm from even her own party, but that lack of buzz was no where to be seen in Harrisburg. Clinton spoke to the people as one of them. She spoke of her Scranton roots and the identity Pennsylvanians have of themselves as  “blue-collar, hardworking, capable of manufacturing the steel that built the country and producing energy that keeps on the lights.” While the rally centered on reaching out to these middle-class workers, a central theme of family dominated Clinton’s responses last night. By focusing on what matters to families, Hillary Clinton managed both to humanize herself and expand her middle-class base in the important battleground state of Pennsylvania.

 

Past Record

“When I think about this election, I think of my own family.” That’s how actress Elizabeth Banks started off the rally. From that moment onward, the theme of the night was clear. Banks, as well as Clinton and her daughter Chelsea, all focused on Hillary Clinton’s track record of looking out for children. In an important moment, Chelsea even addressed the concept that perhaps Clinton is simply focusing on family just to gain votes: “I wish that people really understood that… putting families and children first isn’t rhetorical for my mom. It’s something I watched her do my whole life.” Hillary also focused on steps she has taken and will continue to take to help working parents, including focusing on paid family leave. By backing up rhetoric with past actions, Hillary was able to highlight that she will work to protect what every middle-class American has: a family.

 

Other Issues

An important aspect of her family theme yesterday was that Clinton expanded the idea beyond just the nuclear family. She spoke about various topics that are currently on the minds of middle-class America. Clinton touched on her plan to make college free for students that are from families making less than $125,000. Issues related to the significance of body positivity for young girls and the importance of care for the elderly also were brought up. Perhaps yesterday’s town-hall meeting garnered so much enthusiasm because it showcased a Hillary that middle-class America can get behind; a candidate for whom family matters.