Predictive Analysis of Trump’s Position in the Public Eye

According to Merolla and Zechmeister with The Washing to Post, Terrorist attacks typically affect elections and public opinion in three distinct areas. After a brief discussion of each area, the question will remain: what does this tell us about the 2016 Presidential election?

First Area:

According to the article, “when terrorist threat is pronounced, individuals become less trusting of others, even their own neighbors.” What does this mean? Essentially this means that views towards immigration will become increasingly hostile, and that attitudes towards Muslim and Aramaic immigration will especially escalate.

Second Area:

“Second, terrorist threats help increase the public’s support for certain political leaders.” Traditionally, an increase in threat elevates the Republican candidate as the most favorable solution. Republicans tend to have the persona of being stricter with immigration policies and having a heavier hand against terrorism. While the democratic candidate’s polling rates will typically fall after a recent internationally discussed terrorist attack.

Third Area:

“A third way public opinion shifts in response to terrorism is toward support for more hawkish policies in foreign affairs and homeland security, even at the expense of civil liberties.” This final factor is not influenced as much by political affiliation or party and is primarily a result of individual reactions to terror in the media. In the recent history of our country we have seen that countless citizens are willing to give up certain individual freedoms in order to feel safer and more secure as individuals and as communities.

The Conclusion?

Terrorism has been a significant issue throughout the entire 2016 election season.  Based on the three things listed by The Washington Post, it could be argued that Trump is set up to win the election if the vote was based solely on the areas addressed in the article. Firstly, as individuals become less trusting of others, they will also become increasingly less trusting of Hilary – especially considering the fact that that is already one of her primary faults in the race. Second, Trump running as a Republican gives him the automatic public image of a stern hand when it comes to immigration, not to mention his own drastic statements about fighting terrorism and solving immigration problems. Finally, the shift towards more hawkish policies due to the increasing fear of terrorism without a doubt describes Trump’s stance on foreign policy. Only time will tell if the predictive guidelines of this article are reliable or not.