There’s a large transformation in the automotive industry taking place. A major player in this would be the pressure on automakers to incorporate digital technology and meet the drastic change of customer expectations. Automakers are revising their customer value proposition in addition to their operating model. A great example is Dodge discontinuing the Charger and Challenger. Cars that have dated back to the 60s and still fairly popular half a century later. Automakers are turning their focus to kilowatts and turning away from the idea of high horsepower sells more. Now the focus turns to recognizing these moves and differentiating from other players in the electric automotive industry. This post focuses specifically on Tesla’s commitment to full self-driving and increasing their level of autonomy. This includes their FSD failures and criticism of the program, the idea of full autonomy, and the future of Tesla.
Criticism of Tesla and it’s failures
Just last night on Super Bowl Sunday, The Dawn Project aired an advertisement claiming Tesla’s FSD will run down a child in a crosswalk, swerve into traffic, hit a baby in a stroller, and more. Their mission is “to make computers safe for humanity” and they were willing to pay nearly $600,000 to continue their smear campaign of full self-driving. Just last year, they took out a full-page ad in the New York Times. The Dawn Project may just be Tesla’s biggest hater. Now we wait for Elon’s response. He’s already called Dan O’Dowd, CEO of Dawn Project, bat sh*t crazy in the past.
In 2015, Elon Musk stated Tesla vehicles would drive themselves in 2 years. Couple of years later and it’s difficult to classify them as fully autonomous. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability will run your pockets for $15,000 on top of, at minimum, a $42,000 vehicle. The car will not actually drive itself still without some assistance of the driver. The system is considered to be in beta and any Tesla driver is a beta tester for the company; putting up their own life for the development of Tesla’s FSD system. Keep in mind, if FSD operates improperly and a crash occurs, neither FSD or Tesla take responsibility. Tesla reminds their consumers that they should be aware of the limitations of FSD before purchasing a vehicle. In court filings, Tesla argues that customers agree to an arbitration clause when they order their cars therefore claims should not be tried in public court or in any class action lawsuits. Can you really sell a feature as full self-driving for $15,000 and in reality it’s some self-driving?
Tesla’s version of autonomy
Tesla has a level 2 driving automation, under the SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) classification system. This level is titled as partial driving automation. A Tesla cannot drive itself or be operated for an extended amount of time without the driver’s hands off the wheel thanks to full self-driving. Drivers must remain alert and ready to take over in any situation.
As of now, no vehicles are offered with level 3 automation – conditional driving automation. However, last month Mercedes received approval in the state of Nevada for their level 3 autonomy vehicle. The first to bring this level of automated driving to the US. Another broken promise from Elon in 2020, as he claimed they would be near level 5 automation by the end of 2021. This raises the question of is Tesla built on ideas and dreams and if they will ever reach level 5 automation. Has Elon Musk sold consumers something under false pretenses?
The future of Tesla
Currently, the demand for the Model 3 and Y are so high that development of a new model is not needed in the near future. Musk believes FSD can make the company worth a lot. With more than 100,000 customers using FSD, the way they improve it is to continue collecting data from their customers. With the Cybertruck supposedly coming out this year, another vehicle is added into the mix for Tesla. Reminder that production was set to begin in late 2021, then delayed to 2022, then Elon confirms Tesla would not launch any cars in 2022. In 2022, Tesla stock fell by around 70%. It has improved by 77% as of last week and sits at 195.52 at the moment. Will Tesla recover this year? Predictions sit at a high of $430.33 over the next 12 months with the lowest sitting at just $33.33. I believe the future of Tesla is all in the hands of Elon.
In my opinion, Tesla is just another automaker. They’ve led the way in the space of electric vehicles but they will not hold that title forever, if they even have it still. One more car company in the mix. I do not believe Tesla is the future. That Elon idea of building tunnels to remove traffic is bad too and already failed in Las Vegas.
Hey Andy! I thought your post this week was really great and was considering doing a blog post about this after watching the Super Bowl commercial. You beat me to it. I agree with I don’t think Tesla is the future. Personally, I don’t trust that self-driving cars are fully reliable as the other cars driving on the road are not self-driving. There is room for error in technology and an error could cost someone their life. I recently saw a TikTok of a woman asleep while driving her Tesla and it’s kinda scary to me that people are doing that.
I am really curious about that conversation between musk and Dan. There seems to be a lot of bad blood between them and unfortunately, I feel as if there won’t be a resolution for a long time. I am looking forward to seeing where the self-driving field goes, especially since the EU is passing laws that ban newly made fossil-fueled cars by 2035.
Hi Andy! Quick side-note, we had a Tesla Product Manager come to our class earlier this year to discuss current and future innovations. One being, the Tesla tank. I would say that Tesla is a driver for digital innovation to your point about its stance in the market. Automobile companies like Mercedes are antagonized to revolutionize and modernize their model by having the pressure of outside competition.
About 7-8 years ago my department at BC took a poll, asking when autonomous vehicles would be widespread. All smart people, half the people said 2 years and the other half said 20. I was on the 20 side. I was right.
Hey Andy! This is a very interesting post. I strongly believe that Tesla has so much potential due to the fact that the model 3 and the model Y are in high demand; I mean, these cars are being massively produced so everyone wants one. However, Lucid has stepped up there game, and I do agree that Tesla might not hold the title for “EV” cars for a while.
Hi Andy, being on Twitter for this class has brought Tesla and self driving to the forefront even more as every time I open it I see Elon tweets. At the least, Elon has brought electricity and technology to the forefront of the industry and other companies, like you mentioned Mercedes, are racing to be the leader in the space. Full-self-driving is a feature that I think is coming at some point. I don’t have a timeline prediction but will now be riding with Professor Kane’s prediction of 20 years.
Hi Andy, great post! Pretty timely, too, considering the Super Bowl ad this past weekend. I also do not think Tesla is the future, but it has certainly been the catalyst for investment in EVs and autonomous driving capabilities. After all of the attention that Tesla has been getting, it is only a matter of time before automotive powerhouses like Mercedes, BMW, etc. follow suit on this focus. It is one of the better technology races because it is steering us toward a better future. I don’t think we are right around the corner from full self-driving capabilities either, though we are making leaps and bounds. I think we are around the 20-year mark until we are all comfortable with letting the vehicle do more of the driving.
Hey Andy! Fantastic post. I actually really wanted a Tesla when I graduate, no matter how much my parents said it’s such a simple and “not reliable” car. I recently rode and drove a Tesla and was astonished by it. However, after reading your blog post, I don’t know if I really want to pay that much for a semi-automatic car. It is really cool, but for that price? I don’t know. Furthermore, I didn’t know that Tesla had a major hater against it, but I’m not surprised that Elon said what he did to them (I feel as though he can be a bit erratic at times).
You beat me to it. The Dawn Project’s Super Bowl commercial was very surprising to see, and as someone that was expecting funny commercials, it was a total downer. With all the disclaimers that Tesla gives to customers purchasing cars with autonomous features, people should know that it is not a fun gadget to mess with. There are serious dangers associated with relying fully on Tesla’s self-driving features. In a way, Tesla brought this upon itself. Their word choice needs some reconsideration because marketing a vehicle with the word “autonomous” associated with it implies that the car can drive itself. Toyota calls its features “Lance-Tracing-Assist” and “Safety Sense”, and this seems much more appropriate for the current self-driving technology. Maybe Elon did sell consumers something under false pretenses and Tesla should have waited a few more years before saying its vehicles have an autonomous feature. Nice blog post!
I try to follow the progression of Tesla’s self driving and with the recent release of their FSD, I have seen nothing but great thing with their use of ML and constant updates. Seeing the ad during the super bowl was not too surprising for me as their are constant efforts from many different groups wanting to stop tesla. Its interesting to see how it’ll play out as nearly every automaker is looking to be fully electric going forward.
Hi Andy, very interesting post! I did notice the Super Bowl commercial and this post was made at the perfect time. I think that Tesla played a very important role in making EV cars more mainstream, but I agree that it is not going to continue its dominance in the EV space in the upcoming years. I will be interested in seeing how self-driving cars evolve over the years!