Has Trump really lost the female vote?

Throughout this election the media has used all of Trump’s demeaning rhetoric to shape his narrative. However, over the past few days Trump has engaged in silence to prevent further upset with potential female voters.

Silence is Golden

Since his “nasty women” comment, Trump has made a large effort to transform his rhetoric from denial to what he considers to be the real issues. By the end of October Trump adopted the strategy to ignore the allegations and focus on the issues he knows best such as jobs and the economy. Initially I felt that this was a poor strategy and felt that a large majority of America wouldn’t see this as a campaign strategy, but rather a “dismissive attitude towards the concerns of women” (Adamczyk). I personally feel that this is just a diversion tactic to take the focus off of Trump and his demeaning rhetoric used towards women. However, the longer I thought, I began to realize that this was a smart strategy for Trump because he doesn’t do well when he goes off script.

Is there proof?

According to an article published by The Daily Caller News Foundation on November 7th, Trump has made a rather large gain in the polls with female voters (Stucky). In fact the author claims that Trump now has a two point lead over Clinton which is primarily due to his “increasing support from women voters.” According to Investor’s Business Daily IBD tracking poll sh poll5-gender-110116-640x360 ows that Trump’s crude language and actions involving women appear to not have hurt his standing against Clinton. The poll shows that 39% of women have announced their support for Trump, which is the same percentage of su
pport Mitt Romney received in 2012 from women voters.

However, there are still many polls that predict that Trump has in fact lost the educated women vote (Purcell). Nonetheless, the real question of whether or not Trump has greatly lost the female vote will ultimately be seen in the election results.

Now we wait…

At this point it can swing either way. However, I personally believe that the media have used all of Trump’s demeaning comments to shape his narrative. Rhetoric is called into being by the situation and Trumps previous actions have ultimately allowed for this negative narrative to be created. The public often chooses from a small set of stories and this is perfectly seen by how America simply sees Trump as a womanizer. The media and the voters have chosen to remember all the demeaning rhetoric Trump has engaged in. Over the course of this election the media has rightfully persuaded the American women that Trump is a man unworthy of presidency, which I believe will be seen in the election results

Oh, Really? Tremendous?

The Claim

At a speech in Jacksonville, Florida on November 3rd, 2016, Donald Trump said “I think I have tremendous support from women.” According to politifact.com, Trump has made an incorrect claim in saying this. Throughout his campaign, we have seen Trump struggle to gain the support of women, so it is unlikely that he has done so in the last week. In order to determine the truth in his statement, we can look at the polls and see how the numbers add up. While numbers have been changing in the past week, the polls can help us determine whether or not women’s support for Trump is indeed tremendous.

trump-tremendous The Polls Have It

As has been discussed in class numerous times, polls are rarely 100% accurate due to poor turnout, asking a biased population, and numerous other errors, but they are the best way to predict what the election turnout might be. A recent CBS Poll shows Clinton winning 50% of the female vote compared to Trump’s 36%, and an ABC News poll reports Clinton’s 52% to Trump’s 41%. Among a number of polls, the smallest gap between the two candidates in terms of female support is 8 points, showing that Trump’s claim seems to be false.

History of Women Supporting the Republican Party

According to political scientist Christina Wolbrecht, “The exact figure depends on your data source, but the reliable sources all put the percent of women voting for GOP nominees at the low to upper 40s since 2000.” Trump’s average is at 39 right now, putting him behind George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney’s support from women in their respective elections. While he does carry Republican women with 72% support, is pales in comparison to the 92% who voted for Romney in 2012. Although anything can change on election day, it’s looking like women’s support for Trump will be anything but “tremendous.”

When the Gender Gap is More Than a Gap

Status of the Female Vote
At this point in the election, polls show that out of 100 women, 61 are voting for Clinton and 28 for Trump, as shown in this video. Statisticians have gone so far as to make bold statements like “If Trump loses the election, it will be because women voted against him.” At the beginning of this election, we anticipated a gender gap, but nowhere near this size. Fivethirtyeight.com shows a compilation of the gender split from all national polls so far in October, only reinforcing what the media is presenting…and the numbers aren’t looking good for Trump.

Where’s Your Audience?

It’s no secret that Trump needs to target women in order to boost his chances of winning this election. But, due to the message he is sending, it seems as though he’s misunderstanding his audience. In his apology over the 2005 mic-tape release, he says things like “if anyone was offended” and called the whole scenario a “distraction”, discounting the severity of his comments. Rather than addressing that women need a sincere apology or explanation, he has turned to either dismissing his actions or focusing his attention on the actions of Bill and Hillary Clinton. If he is truly interested in gaining the female vote, the way he handled the situation, including his response to the numerous women who have come out and spoken against him, would reflect those intentions. His responses would have been more intentional, emotional, and specifically target toward women.

What Does this Mean?

For Trumps final month of the election, this means a few things. First, sites such as this one must exist to help support his effort. In past elections with smaller gender gaps, a site specifically devoted to gaining more female votes would not have been necessary. Second, Trump will have to stop blaming the issue on a media bias. He must realize that he’s not giving his audience what they want and change his strategy. Without the female vote, it’s highly unlikely that Trump will win the election.

Kristen LaFevers